D&B Data Shows Immediate Impact of New U.S. Trade Policies

Upon the announcement of new U.S. tariffs in early April, global maritime trade began contracting almost immediately as cargo routes rapidly shifted course in the face of shifting cost calculations. 

Dun & Bradstreet Shipping Insights data, which includes tracking on more than 30 million current maritime shipments, shows global container bookings dropped 2.8% from January through April year-over-year, driven by a 7.6% drop in April bookings. A 9% increase in U.S. imports in February and March, likely due to stockpiling in anticipation of tariff increases, was not enough to offset a 13.3% drop in U.S. imports in April, Dun & Bradstreet data shows. 

Bookings from China to the U.S. dropped 36.4% in April. However, that decrease is less pronounced than cyclical drops in U.S.-bound bookings typically seen during Chinese holidays, as demonstrated in the graph below. The Dun & Bradstreet data also shows a bump in China-to-U.S. bookings at the end of April

The U.S. West Coast is expected to feel the lagging effects of decreased import volumes first due to the higher percentage of Chinese goods traveling through these ports and their proximity to China. The ports of Seattle and Tacoma, Wash. saw a 34.6% drop in import bookings from China year-over-year in April. 

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif. saw a 32.3% drop in import bookings from China in April compared to April 2024, driving a 14.4% drop in overall import bookings that month. 

Significant frontloading was seen in imports of toys, games, sports equipment, and electronics to the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif., while non-knitted clothing saw a collapse in volume from China and a relative lack of growth from other exporters.

As Chinese exports to major U.S. ports diminished in April, relatively low tariff countries (such as India, Brazil, Italy, and Spain) increased their share of connected ports for U.S. imports. Despite those shifts, U.S. imports were still diminished overall in the month of April.

Meanwhile, U.S. exports increased 4.1% in April year-over-year. That month, U.S. export bookings to Vietnam rose 65% year-over-year; U.S. bookings to Thailand rose 60.8%; and U.S. bookings to India rose 12.8% versus a year ago. U.S. exports also saw increased year-over-year bookings in April in categories such as cotton (63.9% increase), vehicles and vehicle parts (22.8% increase), cereals (41% increase), and iron and steel (24.5% increase). 

Assessing and Mitigating Risk

Assessing the impacts of tariffs is complicated, requiring businesses to assess their options in a rapidly changing trade policy environment while simultaneously analyzing the effects that ripple throughout their supply chains. 

“It’s incredibly difficult for businesses to plan with confidence,” said Dun & Bradstreet economist Grant Hixon during a recent webinar about navigating the evolving tariff landscape. “Firms are now re-routing supply chains in real time to mitigate risk, but these shifts bring their own complications — high logistical costs, new compliance requirements, and operational disruptions. On the analytical side, pass-through effects are hard to trace. Tariffs may increase costs, but those costs are absorbed unevenly across suppliers, wholesalers, and retailers.”

Also during the webinar, Theodora Papadimitropoulou, Director, GTM Third-Party Risk & Compliance, Nordics, noted a survey commissioned by the central bank of Sweden found most Swedish businesses that expected to be affected by possible tariffs foresaw indirect impacts.

By integrating data and insights on 28 million companies with 21 billion connected relationships across multiple supply-chain tiers, Dun & Bradstreet provides visibility into multi-tier supply chain vulnerabilities that are not immediately apparent through complimentary supply chain valuations. 

“Supply chain risk continues to be top-of-mind for businesses of all sizes, and Dun & Bradstreet’s complimentary supply chain evaluation offering addresses the urgent needs of business leaders to better understand potential impacts to their supplier network,” said Brian Filanowski, General Manager, Finance & Risk Solutions.

Other hidden supply chain risks can include supplier financial viability, business failures, export compliance, and sanctions compliance.

“Remember that these tariffs are not only impacting our direct trade relationships, but they're impacting our customers’ trade relationships and our suppliers’ trade relationships,” Papadimitropoulou said. “[It is] increasingly important to assess not only the financial health of these businesses, but also to understand the material impact that divergence of certain geopolitical situations will bring to the risk assessment and to ensure that these entities are being thoroughly monitored through data and analytics to help support more of the holistic, integrated risk management process.”

Environmental, social, and governance considerations could also arise from shifting suppliers to meet the demands of a transforming trade environment, Papadimitropoulou noted.

90-day U.S. Tariff Pause (excluding China) Expires in July: What’s Next?

During the recent webinar, Dun & Bradstreet economist Grant Hixon outlined a spectrum of several possible macro-economic scenarios at the conclusion of the U.S.’ 90-day pause on most country-based tariffs in July. Since then, a parallel negotiation unfolding between the U.S. and China shines light on a possible route forward more broadly: a pause in escalating tariffs as trade negotiations progress but need more time.

On May 12, the U.S. and China announced they had agreed to lower their respective tariff rates for 90 days as trade talks continue. The U.S. reduced tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China lowered its tariffs on U.S. imports from 125% to 10% under the agreement. China also agreed to suspend or remove non-tariff countermeasures implemented after new U.S. tariffs were announced on April 2; among those countermeasures were restrictions on rare earths and magnets.  

“At one end of that spectrum is a sort of negotiated resolution,” Hixon said during the webinar. “The pause [implemented in April], I think, creates space for diplomacy. And I think that's what we've seen. Some countries have been seeking to reach a deal. I think if negotiations go well, we could see a revision of trade terms potentially that might lead to reduced tariffs that would signal de-escalation and perhaps bring some stability to markets.”

Countries may also respond with retaliatory measures, as has already been seen, such as tariffs, export controls, and regulatory barriers.

“That would potentially push the dispute beyond tariffs into a broader economic confrontation,” he said.

Hixon said he expects a hybrid outcome, with movement toward a framework of negotiated exemptions and bilateral deals — the outlines of which are starting to be seen in the U.S.-China negotiations. 

Regardless of the outcome, Dun & Bradstreet experts recommend businesses implement a data-driven, risk-based approach to build resilience and find opportunities in a world reshaped by evolving trade policy. Monitoring the credit of critical suppliers and customers, identifying and vetting alternative suppliers, and understanding multi-tier dependencies are all key steps to respond to the market with agility.