D&B Survey: Business Optimism and Financial Confidence Declining

Dun & Bradstreet’s most recent Global Business Optimism Insights Report indicates the darkening of an already cautious economic outlook as businesses worry about high interest rates, supply chain disruptions, and the resurgence of inflation. 

The report is based on a quarterly survey of approximately 10,000 global business leaders from companies of all sizes, across 17 sectors in 32 economies representing about 70% of global GDP. Combining the survey’s responses with Dun & Bradstreet’s proprietary data and economic expertise, the report offers a comprehensive analysis of global business sentiment. 

Overall Business Optimism

The most recent report incorporates the results of a February 2025 survey to gauge businesses’ optimism levels for the second quarter. The survey reveals that global business optimism declined 1.3% following a 12.9% drop last quarter, as firms continue to grapple with trade-related uncertainty and its broader economic implications.   

Although optimism levels are moderating, they remain similar to those seen a year ago and brighter than the overall outlook reported in late 2023 and early 2024. 

While global business optimism levels remain largely flat for the survey’s indices on supply chain continuity, investment confidence, and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG), financial risk concerns remain elevated.

Financial Confidence Index

Financial confidence dropped 8.6% as businesses contend with high borrowing costs, persistent inflation expectations, and tightening liquidity conditions, with fewer firms anticipating near-term rate relief. 

The dip is widespread, with declining financial confidence reported in 90% of economies surveyed. Businesses of all sizes, in advanced and emerging economies, saw aggregate declines.

“Businesses are expecting slower sales and lower demand, while also bracing for higher operating costs as tariff announcements shake up supply chains,” said Dun & Bradstreet Global Chief Economist Dr. Arun Singh. “This moderating financial outlook is consistent with our forecast of high business bankruptcy rates in 2025.”

Supply Chain Expectations

After a sharp 12.9% drop in optimism for supply chain continuity last quarter, the curve flattened; however, the level of concern varies by country. 

“The prevailing sluggishness in supply chain optimism can be attributed to not only evolving global trade dynamics, but also labor shortages and other persistent supply chain disruptions, such as attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea and Suez Canal,” Singh said.

Globally, businesses are also expecting delivery times to increase, with optimism declining 7.8% quarter-over-quarter. Advanced economies report greater concerns over delivery times, with a 9.5% drop in optimism, likely due to unease over the United States’ trade policies and escalating geopolitical tensions. 

 Despite these challenges, some markets see opportunities to benefit from evolving trade dynamics. Countries with high tariff differentials face risks of reciprocal trade measures, but others are positioning themselves as alternative supply chain hubs.

Quadrant of Optimism — Global Business Supply Chain Continuity Index

For example, U.K. businesses report the steepest decline in supply chain optimism quarter-over-quarter at -23.7%, while Indian businesses’ supply chain optimism jumped 36.6%, driven by that country’s robust internal market and expanding manufacturing sector. 

While the U.K. (-23.7%), Norway (-17.2%), South Korea (-10.2), and the U.S. (-7.7%) anticipate a negative impact on their supply chain continuity, India (+36.6%), Indonesia (+25.5%), and the Taiwan Region (+22.8%) see remarkable improvements, reflecting emerging economies’ strategic diversification and perceived ability to meet shifting global trade needs.   

“As global trade patterns continue to evolve, businesses that can adapt to the changing landscape may find new opportunities despite the broader economic uncertainty,” Singh said.

Key Recommendations for Nurturing Growth and Resilience

In light of the report’s findings, Dun & Bradstreet’s economists recommend businesses exercise caution and revisit their growth strategies, with an eye to enhancing client coverage across high-growth economies. 

“Economic growth will be asymmetric, presenting risks and pockets of opportunity,” Singh said. “Even businesses operating in slower economies may be partially immune if most of their corporate family tree — subsidiaries, joint ventures, and affiliates — operates in economies experiencing expansion, and vice versa.”

The impact of the economic cycle will be amplified by the depth of corporate linkages, including suppliers, vendors, and customers, spread across other regions.

To increase customers’ resilience during this volatile economic period, Dun & Bradstreet leverages proprietary multi-tier supply chain data and insights, which includes 28 million companies with 21 billion connected relationships across multiple supply chain tiers, to help businesses monitor and adjust to supply chain challenges.  

“Shocks to demand and prices are also concerns for businesses grappling with global trade policy shifts,” said Brian Farley, vice president, Third Party Risk & Compliance at Dun & Bradstreet. “A price shock or a supply shock will have the most profound impacts on businesses that are already at some level of weakness. We watch for developments in key early warning credit signals for bankruptcies and late payments to creditors.”

Credit management is vital during this uncertain period. Businesses must recognize that the current economic landscape calls for a more proactive approach to credit risk mitigation. Having visibility into credit risk across the entire global portfolio can help inform treatment strategies and prioritize collections. 

By working with trusted data and analytics experts, businesses can get faster answers to questions about their customers’, suppliers’, and third parties’ credit risk, as well as their general financial track record, capacity to pay vendors, present capital structure and changes over time, and available collateral for liquidation in case of bankruptcy.