Global Business Optimism Insights

Explore the Dun & Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Insights (GBOI)

• Dun & Bradstreet's survey of ~10,000 business leaders around the world reveals declining global business optimism for the fourth consecutive quarter as business leaders continue to expect a challenging economic environment in Q4 2025.

• Weaker global demand, regulatory changes, and policy uncertainty continue to drag down financial confidence.  

The Global Business Optimism Insights Survey shows business leaders’ confidence continues to fall as they look to Q4 2025, although the rate of decline has moderated following sharp drops earlier this year. Greater clarity on trade policy may be bolstering business confidence across some regions and industries, although the overall outlook continues to trend downward. Businesses are adapting to the evolving global trade order by increasing focus on domestic markets, reducing exposure to unstable supply routes, and building greater flexibility into operations.

Larger businesses appear to be adapting more quickly, leveraging broader supplier networks, stronger financial positions, and access to global markets to take advantage of relatively stable trade policies, free trade agreements, and the benefits of “friendshoring.” Medium-sized businesses appear to be holding steady by spreading risk across markets and diversifying their sourcing. However, small businesses remain under pressure, pulling back on investment plans amid uncertainty about future demand and greater financial concerns.  

For Q4 2025, 67% of U.S. businesses reported that they plan to absorb cost increases, with 55% saying they were raising product or service prices, and 48% indicating they were delaying salary increases. However, only 22% of businesses said they were responding by reducing the workforce, and just 12% by delaying hiring.

A)     The Global Business Optimism Index fell 1% q/q for Q4 2025, with businesses in emerging economies reporting a sharper decline in optimism, at 2.2%, while those in advanced economies saw a slight decrease of 0.6%.

B)     The Global Business Supply Chain Continuity Index declined marginally at 0.5% q/q, following a 9.7% drop in Q3 2025. The Q4 dip highlights persistent vulnerabilities across global supply networks, suggesting that supply chain disruptions remain.

C)     The Global Business Financial Confidence Index deteriorated 2.3% q/q because of weaker global demand, regulatory changes, and policy uncertainty. The index deteriorated more sharply for emerging (-3.7%) than advanced (-1.8%) economies.

D)     The Global Business Investment Confidence Index fell 2.5% q/q, the fourth consecutive quarter of contraction. More businesses reported optimism for planned capital expenditure for Q4 2025 than Q3 (63.9% compared with 62.8%). Average capacity utilization improved to 74.4%, the highest level since Q2 2024, signaling potential investment soon to expand capacity.

E)     The Global Business ESG Index declined sharply in Q3 2025, contracting by 5% q/q after rising by a marginal 0.1% in Q2 2025. While advanced economies reported a decline for the third consecutive quarter, emerging economies contracted after a brief uptick in Q2, reflecting a shift in priorities as businesses grapple with economic uncertainties.

What Is GBOI?

This report is a comprehensive exploration of business optimism worldwide. It delves into the aspirations and sentiments of business leaders to bring you a holistic perspective on the economic landscape.

Scope and Precision

As businesses navigate an ever-changing global landscape, the Dun & Bradstreet^® GBOI equips you with the foresight needed to make informed decisions. Our report - which covers 32 economies (accounting for approximately 70% of global GDP) - is a synthesis of data from a comprehensive survey involving approximately 10,000 businesses. This extensive reach ensures that the insights provided are representative and reflective of diverse global perspectives.

To help businesses navigate an ever-changing global landscape, Dun & Bradstreet also offers Country Insight Solutions, which provide forecasts and business recommendations for 132 economies. These solutions help businesses to monitor and respond to economic, commercial, and political risks. Learn more about our country risk analysis and reports here.